Curriculum Vitae

Julius Garbe

M.Sc. Integrated Climate System Sciences

Climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.

julius.garbe@pik-potsdam.de | www.pik-potsdam.de/members/garbe/ | @juliusgarbe.github.io

Education

Ph.D. in Climate Physics, 2017-present
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research / University of Potsdam
- Thesis: The Antarctic Ice Sheet as a tipping element of the Earth system
- Supervisors: Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann & Dr. Jonathan F. Donges
M.Sc. in Integrated Climate System Sciences, 2014-2017
University of Hamburg
- Thesis: Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
- Supervisors: Dr. habil. Georg Feulner, Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann, & Prof. Lars Kaleschke
B.Sc. in Physics (major) and Mathematics (minor), 2009-2013
Humboldt University of Berlin
- Thesis: An overview of explanations for the problem of weak temperature gradients in warm climates in Earth history
- Supervisors: Prof. Jürgen Kurths & Dr. habil. Georg Feulner

Professional & Academic Experience

Guest researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2024-present
- Working group: Ice Dynamics
- Department: Earth Resilience Science Unit
Research assistant, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2017-2023
- Working group: Ice Dynamics
Graduate research assistant, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2016-2017
- Working group: Earth System Modes of Operation
- Associated working group: Ice Dynamics
Undergraduate research assistant, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2012-2013
- Working group: Earth System Modes of Operation

Peer-Reviewed Publications

The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements—a review

Ritchie*, P. D. L., Steinert*, N. J., Abrams, J. F., Alkhayuon, H., Arnscheidt, C. W., Bochow, N., Chapman, R. R., Clarke, J., Dennis, D. P., Donges, J. F., Flores, B. M., Garbe, J., Högner, A., Huntingford, C., Lenton, T. M., Lohmann, J., Lux-Gottschalk, K., Milkoreit, M., Möller, T., Pearce-Kelly, P., Pereira, L., Quinn, C., Schleussner, C.-F., Stuenzi, S. M., Swingedouw, D., Van der Laan, L. N., Zickfeld, K., Wunderling*, N.: The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad, 2026. *These authors contributed equally to this work.

Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming

Winkelmann, R., Garbe, J., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T.: Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0, 2026.

Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss

Chandler, D. M., Langebroek, P. M., Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Garbe, J., Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss, Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 420, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2, 2025.

Earth’s hypsometry and what it tells us about global sea level

Pedersen, V. K., Gomez, N., Mitrovica, J. X., Jungdal-Olesen, G., Andersen, J. L., Garbe, J., Aschwanden, A., Winkelmann, R.: Earth's hypsometry and what it tells us about global sea level, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 648, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2024.119071, 2024.

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble

Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., Zwinger, T.: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble, Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004561, DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004561, 2024.

The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple

Garbe, J., Zeitz, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Winkelmann, R.: The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple, The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023.

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded

Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., Winkelmann, R.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, The Cryosphere, 17, 3761-3783, DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023.

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry

Hill, E. A.*, Urruty, B.*, Reese, R.*, Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry, The Cryosphere, 17, 3739-3759, DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023. *These authors contributed equally to this work.

Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time

Bauer, N., Keller, D. P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., and Winkelmann, R.: Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 054015, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83, 2023.

The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020.

Projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C., Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., Calov, R., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Nowicki, S. M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.-J., Sun, S., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2), Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020.

Submitted Articles & Preprints

Informing low-order models of climate tipping elements using outputs from higher-complexity Earth system models

Bochow, N., Krönke, J., Garbe, J., Wunderling, N.: Informing low-order models of climate tipping elements using outputs from higher-complexity Earth system models, Earth System Dynamics, in review, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-614 [preprint], 2026.

TOAD v1.0: A Python Framework for Detecting Abrupt Shifts and Coherent Spatial Domains in Earth-System Data

Harteg, J., Röhrich, L., De Maeyer, K., Garbe, J., Sakschewski, B., Klose, A. K., Donges, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Loriani, S.: TOAD v1.0: A Python Framework for Detecting Abrupt Shifts and Coherent Spatial Domains in Earth-System Data, Geoscientific Model Development, in review, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-356 [preprint], 2026.

Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections

Beckmann, J., Reese, R., McCormack, F. S., Cook, S., Bird, L., Gwyther, D., Richards, D., Scheiter, M., Wang, Y., Seroussi, H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pelle, T., Quiquet, A., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Zhao, C., Zwinger, T.: Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections, The Cryosphere, in review, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069 [preprint], 2025.

Constraining the onset of future irreversible retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica

Nicola, L., Garbe, J., Klose, A. K., Winkelmann, R., Reese, R.: Constraining the onset of future irreversible retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, in review, DOI: 10.31223/X5NB14 [preprint], 2025.

Academic Theses

Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Garbe, J.: Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hamburg, 2017.

An overview of explanations for the problem of weak temperature gradients in warm climates in Earth history

Garbe, J.: Ein Überblick über Erklärungsversuche für das Problem der flachen Temperaturgradienten in Warmzeiten der Erdgeschichte, B.Sc. Thesis, Department of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, 2013.

Open-Access Data & Code

TOAD: Tipping and Other Abrupt events Detector

Harteg, J., Roehrich, L., De Maeyer, K., Garbe, J., Sakschewski, B., Klose, A. K., Donges, J., Winkelmann, R., Loriani, S.: TOAD: Tipping and Other Abrupt events Detector [code], Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18316437, 2026.

PISM model output data from Winkelmann et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2026) publication

Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Donges, J. F.: PISM model output data from Winkelmann et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2026) publication [data set], Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17466785, 2025.

PISM model output data from Garbe et al. (Nature, 2020) publication

Garbe, J.: PISM model output data from Garbe et al. (Nature, 2020) publication [data set], Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10361755, 2023.

Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)

Khrulev, C., Aschwanden, A., Bueler, E., Brown, J., Maxwell, D., Albrecht, T., Reese, R., Mengel, M., Martin, M., Winkelmann, R., Zeitz, M., Levermann, A., Feldmann, J., Garbe, J., Haseloff, M., Seguinot, J., Hinck, S., Kleiner, T., Fischer, E., Damsgaard, A., Lingle, C., van Pelt, W., Ziemen, F., Shemonski, N., Mankoff, K., Kennedy, J., Blum, K., Habermann, M., DellaGiustina, D., Hock, R., Kreuzer, M., Degregori, E., Schoell, S.: Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) [code], Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1199019, 2023.